Smoothing destination-specific migration flows

Abstract Accurately estimating age profiles for destination-specific migration is requisite to understanding the determinants of population growth and projecting future change as primary determinant most regions. In Australia, place-to-place flows based on profile derived from census data are commonly used empirically estimate internal migration. However, such heterogeneous imperfect accurately generating migration-age profiles. Demographers have addressed this by developing a range methods smoothing probabilities. These address bi-regional basis, primarily with one destination–origin pairing. We propose non-parametric method probabilities which can be applied multi-regional within generation–distribution framework Rogers et al. (Environ Plan A 34:341–359, 2002). demonstrate that, if total age-specific out-migration has already been estimated, ratios provides solution input data. Using example Australian interstate migration, we show how give an accurate fit ratio across high-curvature ages good treatment sample noise both when at risk low, advanced ages, destination low conditional probability An implementation available Excel add-in.